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פותח על ידי קלירמאש פתרונות בע"מ -
Qualification of a plant disease simulation model: Performance of the LATEBLIGHT model across a broad range of environments
Year:
2005
Source of publication :
Phytopathology
Authors :
שטיינברג, דני
;
.
Volume :
95
Co-Authors:
Andrade-Piedra, J.L., Department of Plant Pathology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States, International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 17-21-1977, Quito, Ecuador
Forbes, G.A., International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 1558, Lima 12, Peru
Shtienberg, D., Department of Plant Pathology, ARO, Volcani Center, Bet Dagan 50250, Israel
Grünwald, N.J., Horticultural Crops Research Laboratory, USDA-ARS, 3420 NW Orchard Ave., Corvallis, OR 97330, United States
Chacón, M.G., International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 17-21-1977, Quito, Ecuador
Taipe, M.V., International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 17-21-1977, Quito, Ecuador, Facultad de Ciencias Aplicadas, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Ejército (ESPE), Sangolquí, Ecuador
Hijmans, R.J., Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, 3101 Valley Life Sciences Building, Berkeley 94720, United States
Fry, W.E., Department of Plant Pathology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States
Facilitators :
From page:
1412
To page:
1422
(
Total pages:
11
)
Abstract:
The concept of model qualification, i.e., discovering the domain over which a validated model may be properly used, was illustrated with LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage. Late blight epidemics from Ecuador, Mexico, Israel, and the United States involving 13 potato cultivars (32 epidemics in total) were compared with model predictions using graphical and statistical tests. Fungicides were not applied in any of the epidemics. For the simulations, a host resistance level was assigned to each cultivar based on general categories reported by local investigators. For eight cultivars, the model predictions fit the observed data. For four cultivars, the model predictions overestimated disease, likely due to inaccurate estimates of host resistance. Model predictions were inconsistent for one cultivar and for one location. It was concluded that the domain of applicability of LATEBLIGHT can be extended from the range of conditions in Peru for which it has been previously validated to those observed in this study. A sensitivity analysis showed that, within the range of values observed empirically, LATEBLIGHT is more sensitive to changes in variables related to initial inoculum and to weather than to changes in variables relating to host resistance. © 2005 The American Phytopathological Society.
Note:
Related Files :
Confidence interval test
Envelope of acceptance test
Metamodelling
Phytophthora infestans
Revalidation
Solanum tuberosum
עוד תגיות
תוכן קשור
More details
DOI :
10.1094/PHYTO-95-1412
Article number:
Affiliations:
Database:
סקופוס
Publication Type:
מאמר
;
.
Language:
אנגלית
Editors' remarks:
ID:
27098
Last updated date:
02/03/2022 17:27
Creation date:
17/04/2018 00:28
Scientific Publication
Qualification of a plant disease simulation model: Performance of the LATEBLIGHT model across a broad range of environments
95
Andrade-Piedra, J.L., Department of Plant Pathology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States, International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 17-21-1977, Quito, Ecuador
Forbes, G.A., International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 1558, Lima 12, Peru
Shtienberg, D., Department of Plant Pathology, ARO, Volcani Center, Bet Dagan 50250, Israel
Grünwald, N.J., Horticultural Crops Research Laboratory, USDA-ARS, 3420 NW Orchard Ave., Corvallis, OR 97330, United States
Chacón, M.G., International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 17-21-1977, Quito, Ecuador
Taipe, M.V., International Potato Center (CIP), P.O. Box 17-21-1977, Quito, Ecuador, Facultad de Ciencias Aplicadas, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Ejército (ESPE), Sangolquí, Ecuador
Hijmans, R.J., Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, 3101 Valley Life Sciences Building, Berkeley 94720, United States
Fry, W.E., Department of Plant Pathology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States
Qualification of a plant disease simulation model: Performance of the LATEBLIGHT model across a broad range of environments
The concept of model qualification, i.e., discovering the domain over which a validated model may be properly used, was illustrated with LATEBLIGHT, a mathematical model that simulates the effect of weather, host growth and resistance, and fungicide use on asexual development and growth of Phytophthora infestans on potato foliage. Late blight epidemics from Ecuador, Mexico, Israel, and the United States involving 13 potato cultivars (32 epidemics in total) were compared with model predictions using graphical and statistical tests. Fungicides were not applied in any of the epidemics. For the simulations, a host resistance level was assigned to each cultivar based on general categories reported by local investigators. For eight cultivars, the model predictions fit the observed data. For four cultivars, the model predictions overestimated disease, likely due to inaccurate estimates of host resistance. Model predictions were inconsistent for one cultivar and for one location. It was concluded that the domain of applicability of LATEBLIGHT can be extended from the range of conditions in Peru for which it has been previously validated to those observed in this study. A sensitivity analysis showed that, within the range of values observed empirically, LATEBLIGHT is more sensitive to changes in variables related to initial inoculum and to weather than to changes in variables relating to host resistance. © 2005 The American Phytopathological Society.
Scientific Publication
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