Presnov, E., Besor Experiment Station, Volcani Center, A. R. O., Mobile Post Negev 4, 85400, Israel
Dayan, E., Besor Experiment Station, Volcani Center, A. R. O., Mobile Post Negev 4, 85400, Israel
Fuchs, M., Besor Experiment Station, Volcani Center, A. R. O., Mobile Post Negev 4, 85400, Israel
Plaut, Z., Besor Experiment Station, Volcani Center, A. R. O., Mobile Post Negev 4, 85400, Israel

This paper describes a model that evaluates the temporal fluctuation of the number of flowering shoots produced by a greenhouse rose crop. The model divides flowers in age classes or developmental stages, and defines parameters necessary to simulate population development. It contracts a matrix of coefficients based on past data of seasonal variation of flowering shoot production. It assigns a random transition factor to express the number of new flowering shoots that appear after the harvest of mature flowers. An external sinusoidal forcing function modulates this random factor. The resulting calculation generates oscillations with amplitudes and periods similar to the measured production of the rose crop.