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פותח על ידי קלירמאש פתרונות בע"מ -
Future climate change in the Northern Indian Ocean as simulated with a high-resolution regional earth system model
Year:
2023
Source of publication :
Climate Dynamics
Authors :
Volume :
Co-Authors:
  • Dmitry V. Sein, 
  • Stanislav D. Martyanov, 
  • Anton Y. Dvornikov, 
  • William Cabos, 
  • Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, 
  • Alok K. Mishra, 
  • Natalia Limareva, 
  • Evgenia Alekseeva, 
  • Daniela Jacob  
  • Pankaj Kumar 
Facilitators :
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Total pages:
1
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Abstract:

This study examines the future climate change in the South Asia region during 2070–2099 with respect to the historical period (1975–2004) under RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional earth system model. We found substantial changes in the key climatic parameters over the South Asia region including ocean biological productivity, however, the magnitude of response varies spatially. A substantial increase (> 2.5 °C) in the projected annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) was found over the Indian Ocean with the highest increase (~ 3.4 °C) locally in the northern part of the Arabian Sea and in the Persian Gulf, SST changes being significant throughout the study area with 95% confidence level. The changes in the sea surface salinity showed strong spatial variability with the highest freshening over northern Bay of Bengal and highest salinity in the Persian Gulf followed by northern Arabian Sea. The amount of annual-mean precipitation will substantially increase over the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal (up to 1.5–2.0 mm/day) and along the equator in the band 10° S–10° N (0.5–1.5 mm/day), while it will decrease over the western part of the Bay of Bengal and in the northern states of India (− 0.5 to 1.0 mm/day). The most pronounced increase of precipitation rate in the future climate will occur over India (3–5 mm/day) and the eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal (> 5 mm/day) during the monsoon period, and over the equatorial band (2–3 mm/day) during the post-monsoon period, with all precipitation changes indicated above being significant at 95% confidence level.

Note:
Related Files :
Atmosphere-ocean coupling
Future climate change
Indian Ocean
Regional climate modeling
עוד תגיות
תוכן קשור
More details
DOI :
10.1007/s00382-023-06939-9
Article number:
0
Affiliations:
Database:
סקופוס
Publication Type:
מאמר
;
.
Language:
אנגלית
Editors' remarks:
ID:
65595
Last updated date:
26/09/2023 17:24
Creation date:
26/09/2023 17:24
Scientific Publication
Future climate change in the Northern Indian Ocean as simulated with a high-resolution regional earth system model
  • Dmitry V. Sein, 
  • Stanislav D. Martyanov, 
  • Anton Y. Dvornikov, 
  • William Cabos, 
  • Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, 
  • Alok K. Mishra, 
  • Natalia Limareva, 
  • Evgenia Alekseeva, 
  • Daniela Jacob  
  • Pankaj Kumar 
Future climate change in the Northern Indian Ocean as simulated with a high-resolution regional earth system model

This study examines the future climate change in the South Asia region during 2070–2099 with respect to the historical period (1975–2004) under RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional earth system model. We found substantial changes in the key climatic parameters over the South Asia region including ocean biological productivity, however, the magnitude of response varies spatially. A substantial increase (> 2.5 °C) in the projected annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) was found over the Indian Ocean with the highest increase (~ 3.4 °C) locally in the northern part of the Arabian Sea and in the Persian Gulf, SST changes being significant throughout the study area with 95% confidence level. The changes in the sea surface salinity showed strong spatial variability with the highest freshening over northern Bay of Bengal and highest salinity in the Persian Gulf followed by northern Arabian Sea. The amount of annual-mean precipitation will substantially increase over the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal (up to 1.5–2.0 mm/day) and along the equator in the band 10° S–10° N (0.5–1.5 mm/day), while it will decrease over the western part of the Bay of Bengal and in the northern states of India (− 0.5 to 1.0 mm/day). The most pronounced increase of precipitation rate in the future climate will occur over India (3–5 mm/day) and the eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal (> 5 mm/day) during the monsoon period, and over the equatorial band (2–3 mm/day) during the post-monsoon period, with all precipitation changes indicated above being significant at 95% confidence level.

Scientific Publication
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