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El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation impacts on precipitation in the southern and central United States: Evaluation of spatial distribution and predictions
Year:
2007
Source of publication :
Water Resources Research
Authors :
Kurtzman, Daniel
;
.
Volume :
43
Co-Authors:
Kurtzman, D., Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Hadassah College, Jerusalem, Israel, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Hadassah College, Hanevi'im 37, P.O. Box 114, Jerusalem 91010, Israel
Scanlon, B.R., Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, TX 78758, United States
Facilitators :
From page:
To page:
(
Total pages:
1
)
Abstract:
Understanding and predicting regional impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on winter (October-March) precipitation can provide valuable inputs to agricultural and water resources managers. Effects of ENSO and PDO on winter precipitation were assessed in 165 climate divisions throughout the southern United States. A continuous region of significantly (P < 0.05) increased (decreased) winter precipitation in response to El Niño (La Niña) conditions in the preceding summer (June-September Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)) extends across the entire southern United States and as far north as South Dakota. Within this region stronger correlations (r ≤ -0.45) are found along the Gulf of Mexico, southern Arizona, and central Nebraska. Winter precipitation differs significantly (P < 0.1) between warm and cold phase PDO periods only in the south central region, with greatest significance centered in Oklahoma. Enhanced negative La Niña anomalies during PDO cold phases are dominant in the central region (Texas to South Dakota) whereas enhanced positive El Niño anomalies during PDO warm phases are dominant in the southwest (Arizona, Nevada, and California) and southeast (Louisiana to Florida). Validation tests of winter precipitation predictions based on summer SOI and/or PDO-phase show a decrease of 9% to 16% in the relative Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the MAE obtained by using the mean as a predictor in areas with strong correlation (r < -0.45) between SOI and precipitation. Logistic regression probability models of having above or below average winter precipitation had up to 77% successful predictions. The advantage of having probabilities of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds at the beginning of a hydrologic year makes logistic regression models attractive for decision makers. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Note:
Related Files :
climate effect
climate prediction
hydrology
Logistic regression probability models
precipitation (climatology)
United States
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More details
DOI :
10.1029/2007WR005863
Article number:
Affiliations:
Database:
Scopus
Publication Type:
article
;
.
Language:
English
Editors' remarks:
ID:
28478
Last updated date:
02/03/2022 17:27
Creation date:
17/04/2018 00:39
Scientific Publication
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation impacts on precipitation in the southern and central United States: Evaluation of spatial distribution and predictions
43
Kurtzman, D., Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Hadassah College, Jerusalem, Israel, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Hadassah College, Hanevi'im 37, P.O. Box 114, Jerusalem 91010, Israel
Scanlon, B.R., Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States, Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, TX 78758, United States
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation impacts on precipitation in the southern and central United States: Evaluation of spatial distribution and predictions
Understanding and predicting regional impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on winter (October-March) precipitation can provide valuable inputs to agricultural and water resources managers. Effects of ENSO and PDO on winter precipitation were assessed in 165 climate divisions throughout the southern United States. A continuous region of significantly (P < 0.05) increased (decreased) winter precipitation in response to El Niño (La Niña) conditions in the preceding summer (June-September Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)) extends across the entire southern United States and as far north as South Dakota. Within this region stronger correlations (r ≤ -0.45) are found along the Gulf of Mexico, southern Arizona, and central Nebraska. Winter precipitation differs significantly (P < 0.1) between warm and cold phase PDO periods only in the south central region, with greatest significance centered in Oklahoma. Enhanced negative La Niña anomalies during PDO cold phases are dominant in the central region (Texas to South Dakota) whereas enhanced positive El Niño anomalies during PDO warm phases are dominant in the southwest (Arizona, Nevada, and California) and southeast (Louisiana to Florida). Validation tests of winter precipitation predictions based on summer SOI and/or PDO-phase show a decrease of 9% to 16% in the relative Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the MAE obtained by using the mean as a predictor in areas with strong correlation (r < -0.45) between SOI and precipitation. Logistic regression probability models of having above or below average winter precipitation had up to 77% successful predictions. The advantage of having probabilities of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds at the beginning of a hydrologic year makes logistic regression models attractive for decision makers. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
Scientific Publication
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