Incentives:

Climate shifts are compromising productivity and limiting the expansion of deciduous tree-crops worldwide. To mitigate that, we need empirical data and a computational approach to guide farming applications. Biologically, multiple tree-species can produce sustainably in warmer or drier environments. Yet, it is difficult to predict their fit for site-specific climatic conditions. Researchers developed multiple plant-climate models to identify tree-crops' climatic requirements, mainly focusing on winter chill. However, the plant-climate models lacked a physiological framework that would enable upscaling to different climatic scenarios or new market varieties.

We set to develop a physiological framework for the climatic requirements of deciduous tree-crops. We recognized that dormant trees rely solely on stored energy, i.e., non-structural carbohydrates (NSC), for winter maintenance metabolism and spring bloom. We also acknowledged similarities between the empirical climate-plant models and the temperature-kinetics of starch metabolism. Hence, we postulated that dormant trees monitor winter progression by cellular adjustments to NSC metabolism.