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Potential distribution of the citrus Mal Secco disease in the Mediterranean basin under current and future climate conditions
Year:
2022
Source of publication :
Plant Pathology
Authors :
Blank, Lior
;
.
Ezra, David
;
.
Krasnov, Helena
;
.
Volume :
Co-Authors:

Helena Krasnov, 
David Ezra, 
Bochra A. Bahri, 
Santa O. Cacciola, 
Galina Meparishvili, 
Quirico Migheli, 
Lior Blank

Facilitators :
From page:
0
To page:
0
(
Total pages:
1
)
Abstract:

Species distribution models are widely used to estimate the potential geographic distribution of species habitat. They are also used to predict the impact of climate change on species distributions. In this study, we examined the distribution of Mal Secco disease, an infective disease of citrus caused by the fungus Plenodomus tracheiphilus. To model the Mal Secco distribution under current and two future (2050 and 2070) climatic scenarios in the Mediterranean basin, eight climate variables were incorporated into the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. All three model distributions had high AUC values (0.97), indicating excellent performance. The precipitation during the wettest month and the minimum temperature during the coldest month contributed the most to the model. The suitable areas for the Mal Secco disease were predicted to decrease by up to 23% by the year 2070. For each of the three scenarios, the change in the proportion of suitable areas along the longitudinal (west–east) and latitudinal (south–north) geographical axes of the Mediterranean basin showed a similar trend. Our study highlights the supposition that while climate change is likely to reduce the extent of suitable areas, no range shift is expected to occur in the Mediterranean basin.

Note:
Related Files :
Distribution
Mal secco disease
Mediterranean Basin
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Related Content
More details
DOI :
10.1111/ppa.13692
Article number:
0
Affiliations:
Database:
Scopus
Publication Type:
article
;
.
Language:
English
Editors' remarks:
ID:
63235
Last updated date:
15/01/2023 15:14
Creation date:
15/01/2023 15:14
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Scientific Publication
Potential distribution of the citrus Mal Secco disease in the Mediterranean basin under current and future climate conditions

Helena Krasnov, 
David Ezra, 
Bochra A. Bahri, 
Santa O. Cacciola, 
Galina Meparishvili, 
Quirico Migheli, 
Lior Blank

Potential distribution of the citrus Mal Secco disease in the Mediterranean basin under current and future climate conditions

Species distribution models are widely used to estimate the potential geographic distribution of species habitat. They are also used to predict the impact of climate change on species distributions. In this study, we examined the distribution of Mal Secco disease, an infective disease of citrus caused by the fungus Plenodomus tracheiphilus. To model the Mal Secco distribution under current and two future (2050 and 2070) climatic scenarios in the Mediterranean basin, eight climate variables were incorporated into the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. All three model distributions had high AUC values (0.97), indicating excellent performance. The precipitation during the wettest month and the minimum temperature during the coldest month contributed the most to the model. The suitable areas for the Mal Secco disease were predicted to decrease by up to 23% by the year 2070. For each of the three scenarios, the change in the proportion of suitable areas along the longitudinal (west–east) and latitudinal (south–north) geographical axes of the Mediterranean basin showed a similar trend. Our study highlights the supposition that while climate change is likely to reduce the extent of suitable areas, no range shift is expected to occur in the Mediterranean basin.

Scientific Publication
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